Austin Stuhr, OLP Financial Advisor with Cornerstone Investments
Almost every investor eventually asks the same question: “Is now a good time to get in?” It feels responsible, like you are being careful with your money by waiting for the right moment. But decades of market history point to a surprising answer. When you invest usually matters far less than how long you stay invested.
The market rewards patience
Over the long run, the U.S. stock market has trended upward despite wars, recessions, and crashes. For example, the S&P 500, an index of about 500 of the largest U.S. companies, has delivered an average annual return of roughly 10% since it launched in 1957.[1] That does not mean 10% every year. Some years fall sharply and others soar. But for investors who stay put, those swings have historically averaged out to meaningful growth.
Why timing is so hard
“Timing the market” means trying to buy just before prices rise and sell just before they fall. In theory it sounds ideal. In practice, almost no one does it consistently, because a large share of the market’s gains arrive on a small number of days that are nearly impossible to predict. Over the past three decades, missing only the 10 best days would have cut total returns roughly in half, and missing the 30 best days would have erased about 84% of them.[2]
The best and worst days arrive together
Here is the part that trips people up. The market’s best days tend to cluster right beside its worst ones, often in the scariest stretches. Over the past 20 years, 7 of the 10 best days happened within two weeks of the 10 worst days.[3] And 76% of the best days occurred during a bear market or in the first two months of a new bull market.[2] Selling when things look bleak often means being out of the market on exactly the days that power the recovery.
But what about today’s record highs?
This raises a worry many investors feel right now. As of mid-2026, the S&P 500 has set dozens of fresh record highs and sits up around 11% for the year, after bouncing back from a scare earlier in 2026 that briefly turned it negative.[6] Looking at those highs, it is tempting to conclude the market has run too far and a drop must be near. History offers some comfort. Investing right at a record high has historically produced returns close to the market’s long run average over the following one, three, and five years. In the year after a record high, the market fell more than 10% only about 9% of the time, and over any five year stretch following a record high since 1950 it has never ended down more than 10%.[5] New highs are a normal feature of a healthy market, not a warning sign.
What this means for you
None of this promises that markets only rise, or that you will never watch your balance fall. Downturns are a normal part of investing, and past performance never guarantees future results. But the pattern is reassuring: you do not need to predict the market to do well. You mostly need to get invested and stay invested. A few habits help:
- Invest on a regular schedule rather than waiting for the perfect moment. Spreading purchases over time, an approach called dollar cost averaging, lowers the risk of putting everything in at a peak.
- Match your investments to your time horizon. Money you will not need for years can ride out short-term dips.
- Try not to react to headlines. The urge to sell during a scary stretch is exactly when staying put has historically paid off.
The lesson is refreshingly simple. The most powerful tool an everyday investor has is not a crystal ball. It is patience. Time in the market, not timing the market, is what has historically done the heavy lifting.
References
All figures cited reflect historical data as reported by the sources below. Accessed June 2026.
1. Fidelity. “What is the S&P 500 and stock market average return?” https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/sp-500-average-return
2. Hartford Funds. “Timing the Market Is Impossible.” (Data sources: Ned Davis Research, Morningstar, and Hartford Funds.) https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/timing-the-market-is-impossible.html
3. Iacurci, Greg. “Selling out during the market’s worst days can hurt you, research shows.” CNBC, citing J.P. Morgan Asset Management. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/selling-out-during-the-markets-worst-days-can-hurt-you-research.html
4. Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “The perils of trying to time volatile markets.” https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/research-analysis/reports/policy/volatile-markets.htm
5. RBC Global Asset Management. “Investing at All Time Highs.” (Data: Bloomberg and RBC GAM, 1950 to 2025.) https://www.rbcgam.com/en/ca/learn-plan/investment-basics/investing-at-all-time-highs/detail
6. Sparks, Daniel. “The Stock Market Is Still Trading Near Record Highs.” The Motley Fool, June 2026. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/03/the-stock-market-is-still-trading-near-record-high/
Disclaimer
This article is for general educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, tax, or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index and cannot be invested in directly. Individual circumstances vary; please consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
